In June 2016, British voters took part in a referendum on the United Kingdom’s membership of the European Union (EU). By a margin of 52% to 48%, they voted to leave. Studies have demonstrated that fixed demographic factors were the best predictors of voting intentions in either direction, or that “leave” voters were driven by perceived threats from immigration. In this paper, we examine the role of moral intuitions in referendum voting intentions. In Study 1, demographic variables did not predict voting intentions after adding psychological variables to our statistical model. Instead, voting leave was predicted by political conservatism, social change insecurities, and placing moral importance on personal liberty. In contrast, only an adherence to the care foundation of morality predicted “remain” voting. These findings were also reflected in linguistic analyses of campaign materials and news items (Study 2). We discuss these data in relation to common discourses around the Brexit vote.
University of Lincoln, College of Social Science Research
Craig Harper, Nottingham Trent University, Department of Psychology
Todd Hogue, University of Lincoln, School of Psychology